lnpeer: raise chan fees using update_fee more aggressively

The existing logic of only updating the fee if it is not within 2x of
the current 2-block-eta does not work well for the current mempool.

The current mempool looks a bit weird: you need ~20 sat/vbyte to even get into it,
but there is only around 5 MB of txs paying >25 sat/vbyte.
The estimates look like this:
```
>>> config.fee_estimates
{144: 25764, 25: 27075, 10: 34538, 5: 34538, 2: 34538}
```

This commit changes the logic so that we send update_fee if the old rate is
- below 75% of the current 2-block-eta (instead of 50%), or
- below the 25-block-eta

electrum/lnpeer.py

@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ from .interface import GracefulDisconnect
 from .lnrouter import fee_for_edge_msat
 from .json_db import StoredDict
 from .invoices import PR_PAID
-from .simple_config import FEE_LN_ETA_TARGET
+from .simple_config import FEE_LN_ETA_TARGET, FEERATE_PER_KW_MIN_RELAY_LIGHTNING
 from .trampoline import decode_routing_info
 
 if TYPE_CHECKING:
@@ -738,7 +738,7 @@ class Peer(Logger):
             raise Exception('Cannot create public channels')
 
         channel_flags = CF_ANNOUNCE_CHANNEL if public else 0
-        feerate = self.lnworker.current_feerate_per_kw()
+        feerate = self.lnworker.current_target_feerate_per_kw()
         # we set a channel type for internal bookkeeping
         open_channel_tlvs = {}
         assert self.their_features.supports(LnFeatures.OPTION_STATIC_REMOTEKEY_OPT)
@@ -2219,7 +2219,17 @@ class Peer(Logger):
         """
         if not chan.can_send_ctx_updates():
             return
-        feerate_per_kw = self.lnworker.current_feerate_per_kw()
+        feerate_per_kw = self.lnworker.current_target_feerate_per_kw()
+        def does_chan_fee_need_update(chan_feerate: Union[float, int]) -> bool:
+            # We raise fees more aggressively than we lower them. Overpaying is not too bad,
+            # but lowballing can be fatal if we can't even get into the mempool...
+            high_fee = 2 * feerate_per_kw  # type: Union[float, int]
+            low_fee = self.lnworker.current_low_feerate_per_kw()  # type: Union[float, int]
+            low_fee = max(low_fee, 0.75 * feerate_per_kw)
+            # make sure low_feerate and target_feerate are not too close to each other:
+            low_fee = min(low_fee, feerate_per_kw - FEERATE_PER_KW_MIN_RELAY_LIGHTNING)
+            assert low_fee < high_fee, (low_fee, high_fee)
+            return not (low_fee < chan_feerate < high_fee)
         if not chan.constraints.is_initiator:
             if constants.net is not constants.BitcoinRegtest:
                 chan_feerate = chan.get_latest_feerate(LOCAL)
@@ -2232,14 +2242,13 @@ class Peer(Logger):
                         f"({chan.get_id_for_log()}) feerate is {chan_feerate} sat/kw, "
                         f"current recommended feerate is {feerate_per_kw} sat/kw, consider force closing!")
             return
+        # it is our responsibility to update the fee
         chan_fee = chan.get_next_feerate(REMOTE)
-        if feerate_per_kw < chan_fee / 2:
-            self.logger.info("FEES HAVE FALLEN")
-        elif feerate_per_kw > chan_fee * 2:
-            self.logger.info("FEES HAVE RISEN")
+        if does_chan_fee_need_update(chan_fee):
+            self.logger.info(f"({chan.get_id_for_log()}) onchain fees have changed considerably. updating fee.")
         elif chan.get_latest_ctn(REMOTE) == 0:
             # workaround eclair issue https://github.com/ACINQ/eclair/issues/1730
-            self.logger.info("updating fee to bump remote ctn")
+            self.logger.info(f"({chan.get_id_for_log()}) updating fee to bump remote ctn")
             if feerate_per_kw == chan_fee:
                 feerate_per_kw += 1
         else:

electrum/lnworker.py

@@ -2914,7 +2914,7 @@ class LNWallet(LNWorker):
                 else:
                     await self.taskgroup.spawn(self.reestablish_peer_for_given_channel(chan))
 
-    def current_feerate_per_kw(self):
+    def current_target_feerate_per_kw(self) -> int:
         from .simple_config import FEE_LN_ETA_TARGET, FEERATE_FALLBACK_STATIC_FEE
         from .simple_config import FEERATE_PER_KW_MIN_RELAY_LIGHTNING
         if constants.net is constants.BitcoinRegtest:
@@ -2925,6 +2925,18 @@ class LNWallet(LNWorker):
                 feerate_per_kvbyte = FEERATE_FALLBACK_STATIC_FEE
         return max(FEERATE_PER_KW_MIN_RELAY_LIGHTNING, feerate_per_kvbyte // 4)
 
+    def current_low_feerate_per_kw(self) -> int:
+        from .simple_config import FEE_LN_LOW_ETA_TARGET
+        from .simple_config import FEERATE_PER_KW_MIN_RELAY_LIGHTNING
+        if constants.net is constants.BitcoinRegtest:
+            feerate_per_kvbyte = 0
+        else:
+            feerate_per_kvbyte = self.network.config.eta_target_to_fee(FEE_LN_LOW_ETA_TARGET) or 0
+        low_feerate_per_kw = max(FEERATE_PER_KW_MIN_RELAY_LIGHTNING, feerate_per_kvbyte // 4)
+        # make sure this is never higher than the target feerate:
+        low_feerate_per_kw = min(low_feerate_per_kw, self.current_target_feerate_per_kw())
+        return low_feerate_per_kw
+
     def create_channel_backup(self, channel_id: bytes):
         chan = self._channels[channel_id]
         # do not backup old-style channels

electrum/simple_config.py

@@ -24,7 +24,8 @@ from .logging import get_logger, Logger
 FEE_ETA_TARGETS = [25, 10, 5, 2]
 FEE_DEPTH_TARGETS = [10_000_000, 5_000_000, 2_000_000, 1_000_000,
                      800_000, 600_000, 400_000, 250_000, 100_000]
-FEE_LN_ETA_TARGET = 2  # note: make sure the network is asking for estimates for this target
+FEE_LN_ETA_TARGET = 2       # note: make sure the network is asking for estimates for this target
+FEE_LN_LOW_ETA_TARGET = 25  # note: make sure the network is asking for estimates for this target
 
 # satoshi per kbyte
 FEERATE_MAX_DYNAMIC = 1500000